I Don’t Have An Opinion On That

TLDR: When you develop your opinions on the basis of weak evidence, you will have difficulty interpreting subsequent information that contradicts these opinions, even if this new information is obviously more accurate.

One of the most valuable things we can do in life is to limit the amount of opinions we have. Why? To start with we consistently overestimate how widely others share our views, beliefs, and behaviors. This false consensus effect drives three problems.

1. Political partisans assume majority support for their positions, reducing their motivation to engage opposing viewpoints constructively. Religious groups similarly overestimate widespread acceptance of their beliefs, limiting cross-cultural understanding and collaboration.

2. These misperceptions create groupthink that stifles innovation and critical thinking. Teams become echo chambers where dissent disappears and poor decisions multiply. The bias also fuels polarization as people retreat into ideological silos, making compromise increasingly difficult if not nearly impossible.

3. Most dangerously, false consensus accelerates misinformation spread. People readily accept and share content that confirms their assumed majority position while dismissing contradictory evidence without a moment of critical consideration that is may be valid and reliable.

In my opinion if you recognize this bias you can build more effective teams, make better decisions, and foster genuine dialogue by actively seeking diverse perspectives and questioning whether your views truly represent the broader consensus you imagine.